Gender in Chess PART 3: CAUSE AND EFFECT, THE BILALIĆ, SMALLBONE, MCLEOD AND GOBET STUDY

The following is part of a series of posts about some of the difficulties with conducting and interpreting statistical research.

Previous:
INTRO
PART 1: MEASURING THE GENDER GAP
PART 2: ELO RATINGS


Howard criticizes a 2009 study published by the British Royal Society that found support for the participation hypothesis--that there are fewer elite female chess players simply because there are fewer female chess players overall. The Bilalić, et al study looked at the top 100 rated male and female players in the German federation and compared the distribution of their ratings to an expected distribution based on the overall participation rates by gender. The observed gender gap was close to what was expected from the overall participation rates.

Howard issues three main criticisms of the study:

1) It is too difficult to determine cause and effect from their data.
2) They didn't control for the number of rated games played.
3) The study relies on data from only the German Federation and thus could simply be a sample size fluke.

CAUSE/EFFECT

Howard argues that showing that the gender gap is in line with what we would expect from participation rates is not enough to establish participation rates as the cause of the gender gap. However, Howard himself does no better in establishing a cause/effect relationship between the gender gap and his hypothesis that men are innately more talented at chess.

Howard supports his claim with data showing that the rating difference between the top male and female players has remained relatively constant over the years, which he assumes means the gender gap has not closed (which is probably incorrect). He then assumes that if there were non-biological causes behind the gender gap, the gap must have diminished over the past several decades as feminism has advanced in many developed countries, and if it hasn't then that means there is likely a biological cause.

But he doesn't provide any more support for this assumption than Bilalić, et al do for theirs. Several areas in sports that should be unaffected by the physical differences between males and females, such as coaching, general management, and officiating positions, have seen little to no progress in gender disparity over that same time span in spite of any general advances in society. It is not a given that a lack of significant progress means that gender disparity is due to natural talent.

I think Howard overestimates his evidence of a causal relationship in part because underestimates the "gatekeeper" effect in chess. In his 2005 paper, he gives this as an important factor in testing his hypothesis:

"Adequately testing the evolutionary psychology view, that the achievement differences at least partly are due to ability differences, requires a domain with very special characteristics. First, it should be a complete meritocracy with no influence of gatekeepers, in which talent of either gender can rise readily."

Howard relies on the assumption that chess is close to a complete meritocracy because most tournaments are open* and results are based on your performance. Howard contrasts this to fields like science, where decision-makers control access to resources and could be susceptible to bias:

"In most domains, gatekeepers control resources needed for high achievement and may run an ‘old boy’s network’ favouring males. In science, for instance, gatekeepers distribute graduate school places, jobs, research grants, and journal and laboratory space."

*Most major tournaments involving the top players are actually not open, but invitational. Most tournaments below the elite level are open, however.

The absence of decision-makers with the ability to deny players access to tournaments does not mean there are no gatekeeper forces at work, however. There are other forces that can have just as strong an effect. WIM Sabrina Chevannes gives some examples of social pressures (under the section "My thoughts on sexism in chess") that commonly make women feel unwelcome or uncomfortable at predominantly male tournaments, ranging from belittling remarks to flat-out harassment.

These problems are driving established female players away from the game, but they can also be important for young players getting into the game. Most grandmasters start chess at a young age, and research backs the idea that starting age is an important factor in chess mastery (full paper)), both because starting earlier allows for greater total accumulation of practice, and because chess likely has a "critical period" effect for learning (the same effect that makes it much easier for a young child to learn a language than an adult).

This means that even subtle effects, such as a parent being more likely to teach the game to male children at a young age, or young males being more attracted to the social environment of a predominantly male local club, can have a significant gatekeeper effect. Things like age of exposure to chess, access to high-level coaching and competition, and social compatibility with existing chess culture are all important factors in developing a player's ability.

This is probably why we see strong chess countries like Russia or other former Soviet nations consistently dominating chess, even though they probably don't have any biological ability advantage. The more children who are exposed to favourable learning criteria, the more high-level chess players a population will produce. Just like these factors help keep the strongest federations on top, they could conceivably favour male players over female players.

Chevannes also points out more explicit gatekeeper behaviour, such as limited access to funding and coaching for England's womens Olympiad team ("Effects of sexism in English Chess"). Several countries provide state-funding or private grants for chess development, similar to the type of gatekeeper influences Howard describes in science. For example, the USCF has the Samford Chess Fellowship, a private grant currently for $42,000, which has been awarded annually since 1987. Thirty of the 32 recipients (three years the grant was split between two recipients) have been male.

And, as mentioned earlier, most of the top tournaments are actually invitational, which also fits Howard's criteria for gatekeeper influence. The potential gatekeeper effect of invitational tournaments preserving rating gaps is even something players have complained about: when the top tournaments only hand out invitations to the same group of top-rated players, those players just end up trade rating points among themselves, which leaves little opportunity for them to give rating points back to the rest of the field.

These factors are incredibly difficult to measure and separate out from your data, which is why Howard considers the absence of such factors essential to test his hypothesis. By ignoring these factors, Howard strongly inflates his evidence in support of a biological cause. In fact, this is a common criticism of the entire field of evolutionary psychology which Howard uses to approach this question: its hypotheses about cause and effect are so difficult to properly test, it is debatable whether it actually qualifies as science.


NUMBER OF GAMES CONTROL

As discussed in the previous post, I don't think controlling for the number of rated games played adequately separates out the effect of practice and development from that of natural talent. More importantly, though, Howard's criticism here is confusing because he only describes the importance of controlling for number games as something that could avoid a potential bias against female players. Females tend to play far fewer rated games on average, and a player's rating tends to increase the more games they play.

In order for this criticism to be relevant to the Bilalić study, omitting this control would have to bias the results in favour of female players. Howard offers no reasoning as to why this would be the case, and it is not at all obvious how it could be. Howard's own data appears to show a decreased gender gap after controlling for number of games.


NOT ENOUGH DATA POINTS

While Bilalić, et al did only look at players from the German federation, they compared ratings for the top 100 players of each gender. In Howard's original study, he included players from all federations, but still only compared the ratings of the top 10, 50, and 100 players of each gender, so he was not actually using any more data points than the study he is criticizing.

Just as importantly, Bilalić, et al actually had a reason for using data from just one federation rather than FIDE data, as outlined in a later paper by Bilalić, Nemanja Vaci, and Bartosz Gula. FIDE rating data is limited to only above-average players and omits a lot of data from developing or below-average players. Rating data from individual federations can allow for a more comprehensive view of the population, such as a better estimation of overall participation rates, which was necessary for their study.

In Howard's summary article, he refutes the Bilalić study by showing data from more federations, but he doesn't actually repeat their study to create a comparison to their work. Instead, he just shows aggregated data with no indication of how many players were included or how the data was aggregated. It is not clear that he actually used more data points to draw his conclusion than Bilalić, et al used, only that he looked at players from multiple federations.

Howard's most recent study is behind a paywall, so unfortunately all I have to go by is his summary published on Chessbase.com. I assume there are more details in the full study, but it is impossible to tell how his data really compares with the data from the Bilalić study from what he published in the summary, which is largely written as a refutation to the Bilalić study.

NEXT:
PART 4: MISREPRESENTING THE DATA

0 comments:

Post a Comment