My Cy Young/MVP Ballots

I don't think I have published my personal ballots here before, but every year I put them together as part of private discussions. I finished filling out my MVP ballots today, and did my Cy Young ballots* earlier this week. I figure since I have a blog about baseball, and since the recent Cy Young result is such a hot topic, I might as well go ahead and publish them here, so here goes.

Cy Young

The Process: For my pitcher rankings, I considered the following stats for each pitcher (all from FanGraphs): ERA, RA, FIP, xFIP, tERA, WPA, and WPA/LI. Each of these was combined with IP to create a WAR figure, with ERA, RA, and FIP park-adjusted using B-R's multi-year park factors. I then averaged these 7 WAR figures to one final figure. A slightly crude process, to be sure, but if I'm going to put a lot of time into a topic, I'd rather put it into something more important than this.

The top five pitchers in each league based on my process were:

1. Felix Hernandez (7.4 WAR)
2. Jered Weaver (6.2)
3. Cliff Lee (6.0)
4. CC Sabathia (5.9)
5. Jon Lester (5.7)

1. Roy Halladay (7.6 WAR)
2. Adam Wainwright (6.7)
3. Ubaldo Jimenez (6.6)
4. Josh Johnson (6.2)
5. Roy Oswalt (5.6)


The Process: For non-pitchers, I used a combination of the batting component of fWAR (park-adjusted wRAA) and WPA/LI for offense. For defense, I used a combination of the Fan Scouting Report, UZR, and Dewan's DRS, plus the position adjustment from fWAR. The
replacement bonus from fWAR was also used. Once again, all stats were from FanGraphs. Pitcher values were used from the Cy Young rankings, though when a hitter and pitcher were close, I also gave some consideration to the pitcher's offensive production in the NL (compared to other pitchers). For non-pitchers who were particularly close, I also looked at non-SB baserunning value from BaseballProspectus, though I didn't add that in systematically (purely due to inconvenience). Players I moved up or down from these adjustments are marked. I also gave some deference to non-pitchers in close decisions.

1. Josh Hamilton (7.7 WAR)
2. Felix Hernandez (7.4)
3. Jose Bautista (7.3)
4. Evan Longoria (7.1)
5. Robinson Cano (6.9)
6. Carl Crawford (6.5; plus notable baserunning value)
7. Adrian Beltre (6.6)
8. Miguel Cabrera (6.3)
9. Jered Weaver (6.2)
10. Cliff Lee (6.0)

1. Albert Pujols (7.5 WAR; baserunning moves him past Votto and Halladay)
2. Joey Votto (7.5)
3. Roy Halladay (7.6; poor hitting--even for a pitcher--from Halladay)
4. Ryan Zimmerman (7.2)
5. Troy Tulowitzki (6.7)
6. Adam Wainwright (6.7)
7. Carlos Gonzalez (6.4; baserunning)
8. Ubaldo Jimenez (6.6; also especially poor hitting)
9. Matt Holliday (6.3)
10. Josh Johnson (6.2)

This is how I would vote were I so empowered. Of minor note; I did not include any kind of league adjustment for the AL vs. NL since these lists don't have to compare between leagues, so apply that caveat when comparing players from the AL lists to the NL lists and vice versa.

*While I keep using the term "ballots" here to refer to my own personal rankings, there is really nothing ballot-like about them (since I am not actually voting for anything) other than the fact that they are mimicking real life ballots**

**Well, mimicking the fact that they are ballots, anyway. Not so much mimicking the thought or content behind them.


RFK said...
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RFK said...

For what it's worth, rWAR has Longoria as #1 in the AL.

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