Comments on 3-D Baseball: The 40/40 Club: Who's Got Next?

Brandon Phillips definitely does not look like a 4...

2009-01-10T09:54:00.000-07:00

Brandon Phillips definitely does not look like a 40-40 guy right now. It is a pretty big stretch to go from 30-30 to 40-40. One has been done 53 times, the other 4. Phillips doesn't have nearly the power to hit 40 HRs, and I doubt he has a 40 steal season in him. He doesn't have the kind of extra base numbers that can turn into more HRs as his power develops either. He's too far away from both to get to 40 in each at the same time. It would take too much sacrificing from the other to get close in one.

The 30-30 guy from 2007 who is more likely to do it is David Wright. He's 2 years younger than Phillips and already has the power to be consistently in the 30s. His power has been increasing the past few years, and unlike Phillips, he has a lot of doubles he could turn into homers-even with his increasing HR totals, he's stayed above 40 doubles each of the past 4 years. His SB took a big hit this year (as did Phillips'), but his career high is higher and the 2 years of age he has on Phillips make a difference.

My opinion, though, is that none of these guys is going to do it. They're all sleepers. Sizemore would be my first pick if I had to choose one, then Hanley, like I said before, but after that, I stop choosing at all. I just don't see how anyone else mentioned does it unless there is some seismic shift in his game.

If I had to put my money on someone, I would put i...

2009-01-09T16:14:00.000-07:00

If I had to put my money on someone, I would put it on Ramirez. The other guy that would not shock me is Sizemore. I knew in the end, somehow, you would make a case for Beltran. If I had to pick a long shot, I would take Brandon Phillips if he can stay healthy. In 07 he had 30 hr's and 32 sb so it would not be huge stretch for him to get there.

I think your looking at Bonds as a power guy more ...

2009-01-07T20:32:00.000-07:00

I think your looking at Bonds as a power guy more than a speed guy is partially because of how he's aged. Bonds was always a big speed guy in his early years. Look at the photos of him from his days with the Pirates-he looks much more like a Sizemore/Ramirez type. He was in the top 10 in the NL in SB 9 times, triples 3 times, and times on base nearly every year of his career. Only once in Pittsburgh did he have more HR than SB, and even into his mid-30s when the SB totals were slipping, his SB% were good and he still had the speed to be a very good left-fielder. It wasn't until he had knee problems and got into his upper-30s and lower-40s that the speed was gone, and it wasn't until he started hitting 40 home runs a year that he was seen as primarily a power threat. At the stage of his career most of these guys are at, he would have been viewed similarly, just as a better player. Also, when any of these guys start hitting 40 HR, they will be viewed more for their power. It's already starting to happen for Sizemore and Hanley, and Beltran to some degree. It will be interesting to look back and compare how we view these guys in their late-30s if they get that far.

A-Rod was also somewhat of a speed guy-he didn't steal that many bases, but he was a quick shortstop with good range before he was a muscle-bound third baseman. Again, look at him with Seattle or even Texas. When he was still a shortstop, he made maintaining his speed a much bigger priority. Canseco, well, we know what happened with Canseco.

One big difference between the power and speed guys in that group is the age at which they did it. The power guys, A-Rod and Canseco, did it at 22 and 23 years old while they still had fresh legs and speed in them. The speed guys, Bonds and Soriano, each did it in their 30s, after they had already had multiple 40 steal seasons, once their power fully developed. I think that's why we're seeing more speed-type guys on this list-to do it as a primarily power hitter, you have to do it while you're young enough to have that kind of flash in your step, and so it would be someone who comes out of nowhere and doesn't have much history to analyze. By looking at guys who have been building up toward that milestone, it sort of selectively favours the speed-type players. Speed wanes through the 20s, while power builds, so if you don't have the speed to start with, you're not going to get it. If you don't have the power, it can come.

Of these players, I think Sizemore and Ramirez are the only ones with any shot. I think Beltran's window on 40 steals is rapidly closing-recent players with 40 SB kind of talent into their mid-30s are few-Rickey Henderson and Otis Nixon stick out, and Ichiro and Dave Roberts have done it recently at age 34, but each of them mostly get on at first base, and they each had SB numbers close to or above 40 in the recent years before 34 too. Beltran has been little more than a 20 SB guy since joining the Mets 4 years ago. I don't see Rollins as a 40 HR guy-he's got mostly double power in a small ballpark, and like you pointed out, he gets mostly cheap shots down the line in that bandbox. I don't see any way he gets even close to 40 without some serious muscling up that would be prohibitive of any more 40 SB seasons. Even hitting 30 again as he goes into his 30s is a lot to expect of him.